Three Visions of the Singularity
Jun. 23rd, 2006 09:50 amIn a discussion on
dryaunda's lj, I mentioned Marc Steigler's Gentle Seduction as an example of how we may enter the Singularity. That shows the path for someone on the "trailing edge", avoiding new tech until it has obvious practical benefits, and ends with a look at life for "posthumans."
Vernor Vinge coined the term "Singularity" to describe a situation where technology has advanced so much it's no longer possible for us to understand people on the other side of it. Steigler deals with that problem in two ways, sticking with a trailing-edge viewpoint character, and looking at problems that match our present day ones. Vinge is trying something similar in his new novel. It's set in the near future with a viewpoint character (he doesn't qualify as a hero) who missed a few decades of progress because of medical problems. It shows people closer to the Singularity than we are now, but just dealing with scaled up versions of the same problems we have now--finding jobs and thwarting terrorists. But it's clearly on the path to his story True Names, where people can totally immerse themselves in computer networks to reach superhuman intelligence.
One story that does look at how approaching the Singularity would affect day-to-day life is Marshall Brain's online novel Manna. His description of the early stages is fascinatingly plausible (and may be happening in real life). Then he veers into a dystopia which is an interesting cautionary tale, but IMO totally impossible (human-equivalent robots won't be cheap when they first come out, so it'll take a while for them to spread through the economy, and our culture and laws won't accept people getting life imprisonment for losing their jobs). The next leap is to a Singularity-threshold utopia, where wealth and technology make everyone's life a paradise. That also has it's plausibility problems, but it's more fun.
I'd recommend the first link for anyone curious about what the "Singularity" is, and the last because it's free.
Vernor Vinge coined the term "Singularity" to describe a situation where technology has advanced so much it's no longer possible for us to understand people on the other side of it. Steigler deals with that problem in two ways, sticking with a trailing-edge viewpoint character, and looking at problems that match our present day ones. Vinge is trying something similar in his new novel. It's set in the near future with a viewpoint character (he doesn't qualify as a hero) who missed a few decades of progress because of medical problems. It shows people closer to the Singularity than we are now, but just dealing with scaled up versions of the same problems we have now--finding jobs and thwarting terrorists. But it's clearly on the path to his story True Names, where people can totally immerse themselves in computer networks to reach superhuman intelligence.
One story that does look at how approaching the Singularity would affect day-to-day life is Marshall Brain's online novel Manna. His description of the early stages is fascinatingly plausible (and may be happening in real life). Then he veers into a dystopia which is an interesting cautionary tale, but IMO totally impossible (human-equivalent robots won't be cheap when they first come out, so it'll take a while for them to spread through the economy, and our culture and laws won't accept people getting life imprisonment for losing their jobs). The next leap is to a Singularity-threshold utopia, where wealth and technology make everyone's life a paradise. That also has it's plausibility problems, but it's more fun.
I'd recommend the first link for anyone curious about what the "Singularity" is, and the last because it's free.
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Date: 2006-06-23 04:46 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2006-06-23 10:00 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2006-06-26 04:46 pm (UTC)I had forgotten Marc Steigler wrote it. He is a very good author who rarely writes. I'm still trying to lay my hands on his novel "David's Sling". I used to have a copy, but it has wandered away.
I'm reading Vinge's "Rainbow's End" now. I don't find it as engaging as his earlier books. I'm only about 70 pages in, so hopefully it will pick up.
-Tim
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Date: 2006-06-26 05:55 pm (UTC)I should check if I still have my copy of that.
hopefully it will pick up
It does, but not enough to compare to the others.
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Date: 2006-09-29 05:52 pm (UTC)I see you're another Manna reader. What I like most about the story is that Marshall doesn't consider transhuman tech inherently bad. Unlike certain weasel-wording luddites I'd love to mention at length (with permission first, of course), Manna isn't giving any hinty-hints claiming that Da People want nothing of bourgeois enhancement. The problems of technology are its misapplication, not its existence.